56th Edwards Bayesian Research Conference March 1-3, 2018


At this conference, investigators present topics that might be empirical or theoretical, involving questions that may be basic or applied, and studying theories that may be normative or descriptive.  Topics deal with judgment and decision theory, basic and applied, either normative or descriptive, and are NOT limited to Bayes theorem or Bayesian statistics . 


The 56th annual meeting was held in Fullerton, CA, on March 1-3, 2018.

Click here to view the presentation slides.



About This Conference

In this conference, investigators present original research on a variety of topics related to judgment and decision making, including but not limited to:
    1) Basic psychological laws of judgment and decision making under conditions of risk, uncertainty, and ambiguity,
    2) Cognitive models of judgment and decision making,
    3) Applications of JDM theory and models to health care and public policy,
    4) Models of error and variability in judgments and decisions
    5) Mathematical and statistical methodology for analyzing behavioral data
    6) Medical decision making, legal decision making, and business decision making
    7) Expert forecasting
    8) Wisdom of the crowds

Research may be empirical or theoretical, involving questions that may be basic or applied and theories that may be normative or descriptive, and does NOT need to involve to Bayes theorem or Bayesian statistics.



A Bit of History of these Meetings

The Bayesian Research Conference was hosted for 41 years by Ward Edwards, and for many years it was held each year in mid-February at the Sportsman's Lodge in Studio City, California. These meetings have been very high in quality, extremely diverse in topic and approach, and under Ward's leadership since 1961, they established a pattern of extremely fruitful, constructive, and congenial meetings. Starting with the 42nd meeting, the event has been held on the campus of California State University, Fullerton.picture of Ward Edwards and Jim Shanteau

The 44th and succeeding conferences are now the  Edwards Bayesian Research Conference,  honoring Ward Edwards, a founder of the field of behavioral decision research, who passed away in early 2005. In this picture, Ward and Jim Shanteau converse at an earlier meeting. As Ben Newall (2009) has written, "Ward Edwards is commonly regarded as the Father of behavioral decision making. In two papers,  The Theory of Decision Making  published in  Psychological Bulletin  in 1954 and  Behavioral Decision Theory  published in the  Annual Review of Psychology  in 1961 he founded and then subsequently gave a name to the field. Then in 1963 he introduced psychologists to Bayesian thinking with his paper  Bayesian Statistical Inference for Psychological Research  published in  Psychological Review.  These truly seminal papers have become part of the folklore of the field and their influence can hardly be overstated." To those accomplishments, one might add his paper in the  Psychological Review  on  Subjective probabilities inferred from decisions  in which Edwards introduced the idea of probability weighting functions that depend on the configuration of consequences, an idea that is central to Prospect Theory, which was co-authored by his former student, Amos Tversky, and Daniel Kahneman.

Luce and Birnbaum

Other Links

Links to other items of interest to Bayesians and decision makers

Simple Bayes Theorem Calculator